business

Tariff uncertainty sends Canadian small-business confidence sharply lower

The CFIB's long-term optimism index fell ten points in September as more firms planned cuts than hiring.

The Canadian

Business

September 24, 2026

4 min read

Market boards reflecting economic uncertainty

Canadian small-business confidence has fallen to its weakest level since the first tariff shocks of early 2025. The Canadian Federation of Independent Business says its long-term optimism index dropped 10 points in September to 47.9.

The short-term outlook also fell 10 points, reaching 43.3. Staffing plans weakened with it: 16 per cent of surveyed businesses expected to cut staff, compared with 13 per cent planning to hire.

CFIB economics director Andreea Bourgeois linked the decline to renewed tariff uncertainty and rising oil and gas prices. Smaller firms often have less room than large companies to absorb abrupt changes in input costs or cross-border demand.

The reading suggests trade friction is moving beyond export-heavy industries. When confidence falls among small employers, the effects can show up in delayed investment, reduced inventories, and a more cautious approach to hiring.

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