business

Deloitte cuts its 2027 growth forecast for Canada by 20 per cent

The firm now expects GDP to grow 1.6 per cent next year, citing tariffs and a sharp slowdown into early 2027.

The Canadian

Business

September 29, 2026

4 min read

A descending market line reflected on an office tower facade

Deloitte Canada has cut its 2027 growth forecast for the Canadian economy by 20 per cent, and now expects gross domestic product to expand 1.6 per cent next year. The revision arrived the same day new American import bans took effect.

The firm expects the fallout from recent escalations in the trade dispute to produce a sharp slowdown in the final quarter of this year and into early 2027, with consumers and businesses facing tighter conditions.

Chief economist Dawn Desjardins said the weight of tariffs and Canada's reciprocal measures will not fall evenly. Some sectors face severe pressure, while federal fiscal supports, investment initiatives, and defence spending point to growth and hiring in others.

Statistics Canada has already reported that economic growth stalled in July. The forecast leaves the coming federal budget as the clearest near-term signal of how Ottawa intends to cushion the sectors carrying the heaviest losses.

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